> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://yvindy.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # San Juan snow sites set early-November records; Steamboat's snowpack is just beginning - URL: https://yvindy.com/san-juan-snow-records-steamboat-snowpack-just-beginning/ - Published: 2026-11-04T20:08:49.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-04T21:32:27.000Z - Description: At three federal snow sites in the San Juan Mountains, Wednesday's snow water was the highest for the date in more than 40 years of records. Around Steamboat, a storm Sunday and Monday put snow back on bare sensors. - Author: Anna Parashina - Tags: Environment & Outdoors, Steamboat Springs *Updated Nov. 4, 2:32 p.m. MST, to add snow depth readings.* ## Key points - Three of the six San Juan Mountains snow sites the Independent checked — Beartown, Red Mountain Pass and Slumgullion — started Wednesday, Nov. 4, with more snow water than on any Nov. 4 in their 45 to 47 years of records. - Since Oct. 1, the Gunnison, Arkansas, Upper Rio Grande and southwest Colorado river basins have had 262% to 423% of their typical precipitation, according to the federal Natural Resources Conservation Service. The Yampa and White basins have had 118%. - A storm Sunday and Monday left snow on seven of the eight federal snow sites in Routt County, all of them bare at the start of Sunday. Tower, near Buffalo Pass, holds about a fifth of its typical snow water for the date. - NOAA's Climate Prediction Center expects a strong to very strong El Niño this winter. Its October discussion does not mention Colorado or tie this fall's storms to El Niño. - The readings are provisional, and early-season percentages swing widely. Another storm was forecast for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, mostly in the central mountains. ![Map of Colorado's 118 SNOTEL snow sites at the start of Nov. 4, 2026, with each dot sized by the snow water on its sensor. 42 sites are above their typical amount for the date, 63 are at or below it, and 13 have no typical value. The biggest dots cluster in the San Juan Mountains in the southwest: Beartown 11.3 inches (typical 1.8), Wolf Creek Summit 7.4 (typical 3.1) and Red Mountain Pass 7 (typical 1.6). Near Steamboat Springs, Tower has 0.7 inch (typical 3.7) and Rabbit Ears 1 inch (typical 1.1).](https://storage.ghost.io/c/aa/3a/aa3a9637-6f90-40b7-a01c-13f8ce5c1e50/content/images/2026/11/snowpack_01_map_dark-1.png) The biggest dots, in the San Juan Mountains, mark the most snow water. Near Steamboat, Tower, Rabbit Ears and Dry Lake are below typical for the date. Three of the six San Juan Mountains snow sites the Independent checked started Wednesday with more snow water than on any Nov. 4 since their records began, between 1980 and 1982. At Beartown, at 11,580 feet in San Juan County, the snowpack held 11.3 inches of water, more than six times the typical amount for the date, by the Independent's calculation. The site's sensor measured 32 inches of snow on the ground. Around Steamboat Springs, the snowpack is just getting started. A storm Sunday and Monday left snow on seven of the eight federal snow sites in Routt County, all of them bare at the start of Sunday. At Tower, the station near Buffalo Pass, the snowpack holds about a fifth of its typical water for the date, by the Independent's calculation. The readings come from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Natural Resources Conservation Service. Its SNOTEL network has 118 automated sites in Colorado's mountains. Each measures snow water equivalent, the depth of water the snowpack would make if it melted. The sites also measure snow depth, the height of the snow on the ground. NRCS's daily report compares snow water, not depth, with typical amounts. NRCS compares each reading with the site's 1991–2020 median for the date. This story calls that median "typical." ### Records in the San Juans Beartown wasn't alone. Red Mountain Pass, at 11,060 feet in San Juan County, started Wednesday with 7 inches of snow water, against a typical 1.6\. Slumgullion, at 11,560 feet in Hinsdale County, had 6.1 inches, against 1.7\. Both were the most for Nov. 4 in 47 years of records, by the Independent's count. Red Mountain Pass's sensor measured 28 inches of snow on the ground, and Slumgullion's 20. ![Bar chart of snow water at the start of Nov. 4, 2026, against each site's typical amount for the date. San Juan Mountains: Beartown 11.3 inches (typical 1.8, 6.3 times), Wolf Creek Summit 7.4 (typical 3.1, 2.4 times), Middle Creek 7.2 (typical 2.0, 3.6 times), Red Mountain Pass 7.0 (typical 1.6, 4.4 times), Slumgullion 6.1 (typical 1.7, 3.6 times) and Stump Lakes 4.5 (typical 1.4, 3.2 times). Beartown, Red Mountain Pass and Slumgullion had the most for Nov. 4 in records back to 1982, 1980 and 1980. Near Steamboat Springs: Rabbit Ears 1.0 (typical 1.1, 0.9 times), Tower 0.7 (typical 3.7, 0.2 times; only 2016 was lower on Nov. 4, in records back to 1979) and Dry Lake 0.4 (typical 0.8, 0.5 times).](https://storage.ghost.io/c/aa/3a/aa3a9637-6f90-40b7-a01c-13f8ce5c1e50/content/images/2026/11/snowpack_02_snow_vs_typical_dark.png) Three San Juan sites set Nov. 4 records. Tower, near Buffalo Pass, holds about a fifth of its typical snow water, by the Independent's calculation. Precipitation since Oct. 1 set records, too. The Independent checked the six sites with the most snow water that have a typical value, all in the San Juan Mountains. At all six, the total since Oct. 1 is the most on record for the date, by the Independent's count. At four of them, the previous high came last fall, in 2025. At those six sites, most of the snow water was already on the ground before this week's storm. At the start of Sunday, Beartown already had 8.1 inches of snow water and Wolf Creek Summit 4.7. Wolf Creek Summit, at 10,930 feet in Mineral County, has measured 21.5 inches of precipitation since Oct. 1\. That's nearly five times its typical 4.4 inches and nearly twice the previous high for the date, 11.2 inches in 2025, by the Independent's calculation. Its snowpack, 7.4 inches of water, is third-highest for Nov. 4 in 41 years of records, behind 1986 and 1998, by the Independent's count. Its sensor measured 21 inches of snow on the ground. ![Bar chart of precipitation at Wolf Creek Summit from Oct. 1 to the start of Nov. 4 in each year from 1986 to 2026. Before this year, the totals ranged from 0.1 inch in 2017 to 11.2 inches in 2025, the previous high. The typical amount for the date is 4.4 inches. This fall's total is 21.5 inches.](https://storage.ghost.io/c/aa/3a/aa3a9637-6f90-40b7-a01c-13f8ce5c1e50/content/images/2026/11/snowpack_03_wolf_creek_dark.png) This fall's 21.5 inches at Wolf Creek Summit is nearly twice the previous high for the date, 11.2 inches in 2025. A year ago, the same mountains were also wet, but held little or no snow. On Nov. 4, 2025, Beartown had measured 12.2 inches of precipitation since Oct. 1 and had no snow water on its sensor. Wolf Creek Summit had 11.2 inches of precipitation and 0.5 inch of snow water. Across whole river basins, NRCS figures show the Gunnison, Arkansas, Upper Rio Grande and southwest Colorado basins have had 262% to 423% of their typical precipitation since Oct. 1. ### Steamboat: a start, not a surplus The storm reached across the state on Sunday and Monday. From the start of Sunday to the start of Wednesday, snow water rose at 93 of Colorado's 118 SNOTEL sites, by the Independent's count. At the start of Sunday, Nov. 1, 53 sites had none. By the start of Wednesday, 17 did. ![Two grids of 118 squares, one for each Colorado SNOTEL site. At the start of Sunday, Nov. 1, 65 sites had snow water and 53 had none. After a storm Sunday and Monday, at the start of Wednesday, Nov. 4, 101 had snow water and 17 had none.](https://storage.ghost.io/c/aa/3a/aa3a9637-6f90-40b7-a01c-13f8ce5c1e50/content/images/2026/11/snowpack_04_bare_to_snow_dark.png) From the start of Sunday to the start of Wednesday, snow water rose at 93 of Colorado's 118 SNOTEL sites, by the Independent's count. In Routt County, all eight SNOTEL sites had no snow water at the start of Sunday. Snow reached Tower on Sunday and six more sites on Monday. At the start of Wednesday, seven had snow; only Bear River, at 9,100 feet, was still at zero. The amounts near Steamboat are small. The Rabbit Ears site, at 9,390 feet southeast of town, started Wednesday with 1 inch of snow water, against a typical 1.1\. That's about the middle of its 41-year record, by the Independent's count. Dry Lake, at 8,240 feet, had 0.4 inch, against 0.8. Tower, at 10,610 feet near Buffalo Pass, had 0.7 inch, against a typical 3.7\. In 48 years of records there, only 2016 started Nov. 4 with less, by the Independent's count. Tower also had 0.7 inch on the date in 1999, 2017 and 2025. On the ground, that was 5 inches of snow at Rabbit Ears, 3 at Tower and 2 at Dry Lake at the start of Wednesday, according to the sites' sensors. Precipitation in the Yampa and White basins is slightly above typical, at 118% since Oct. 1, NRCS figures show. Near Steamboat it is lower: 70% of typical at Tower and 93% at Rabbit Ears. The Independent reported Oct. 30 that most September and October precipitation at Tower, Rabbit Ears and Dry Lake fell on days when the temperature stayed above freezing. ![Bar chart of precipitation since Oct. 1 as a percent of typical in eight NRCS river basins on Nov. 4, 2026: San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan (southwest) 423%; Upper Rio Grande 402%; Gunnison 295%; Arkansas 262%; Upper Colorado 127%; Yampa and White, which include Steamboat, 118%; Laramie and North Platte 80%; South Platte 72%. Typical is 100%.](https://storage.ghost.io/c/aa/3a/aa3a9637-6f90-40b7-a01c-13f8ce5c1e50/content/images/2026/11/snowpack_05_basins_dark.png) The Yampa and White basins, which include Steamboat, are at 118% of typical precipitation since Oct. 1. ### What forecasters say about El Niño NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said Oct. 8 that a strong to very strong El Niño is likely through January–March 2027\. It said chances "remain high for a historic event," one stronger than any since 1950. An El Niño that strong makes impacts typical of El Niño more likely, "though not guaranteed," the center said. Its discussion does not mention Colorado or tie this fall's storms to El Niño. The Independent's Oct. 30 story found that past El Niño Octobers on Buffalo Pass have run from snowy to dry. ### Why early numbers swing Percentages this early can mislead, because typical amounts in early November are small. In Wednesday's report, NRCS flagged the snow percentages for seven of its eight Colorado basins with a note that the analysis "may not provide a valid measure of conditions." The readings are also provisional, so figures and rankings could change. One example: Sharkstooth, in Montezuma County, has 2.8 inches of snow water against a typical 0.2, a median based on 16 years. NRCS lists that as 1,400% of typical. It does not flag the basin precipitation percentages. ### Another storm Wednesday A second, quicker storm was expected to move in Wednesday afternoon. The National Weather Service office in Grand Junction forecast 4 to 8 inches of snow above 10,000 feet along the Interstate 70 corridor, the central mountains and the Elk Mountains, through Thursday morning. In its own area, the Denver/Boulder office expected the most in the Mosquito Range and western Park County, with much less north of I-70\. Both offices forecast drier weather from Thursday. The wet fall has a downside. The Grand Junction office said Wednesday that rivers in southwest Colorado remained elevated from runoff, with some flood warnings still in effect. ## What's next - **Friday, Nov. 6:** NRCS's daily report uses each site's first reading of the day, typically at midnight, so Friday's will be the first to include all of Wednesday's storm. - **Thursday, Nov. 12:** NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issues its next El Niño discussion. - **Saturday, Nov. 21:** Steamboat Resort's scheduled opening day, according to its website. The Independent will update these figures before then. ## Sources USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service: [Colorado SNOTEL Snow/Precipitation Update Report](https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport.html?report=Colorado&ref=yvindy.com) for Nov. 4, 2026, and daily station data from its [Report Generator](https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reportGenerator/?ref=yvindy.com) (start-of-day readings for all 118 Colorado SNOTEL sites, Oct. 27 to Nov. 4, and the full daily record for nine sites). NOAA Climate Prediction Center [ENSO Diagnostic Discussion](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis%5Fmonitoring/enso%5Fadvisory/ensodisc.shtml?ref=yvindy.com) of Oct. 8, 2026\. National Weather Service [Grand Junction](https://api.weather.gov/products/types/AFD/locations/GJT?ref=yvindy.com) and [Denver/Boulder](https://api.weather.gov/products/types/AFD/locations/BOU?ref=yvindy.com) area forecast discussions, Nov. 4, 2026\. [Steamboat Resort](https://www.steamboat.com/?ref=yvindy.com). The Independent's [Oct. 30 story](https://yvindy.com/buffalo-pass-no-snowpack-above-freezing-storms/). NRCS data are provisional and subject to revision.